High Speed Rail and Regional Development: A Longitudinal Econometric Assessment

Abstract

While high speed rail (HSR) is lauded for shrinking spatial temporal disparities, empirical evaluations of its regional economic impact remain contested. Leveraging a 20-year panel of 78 districts intersected by the Beijing–Shanghai HSR, this study employs difference in differences with synthetic controls to isolate causal effects on gross value added (GVA), high skill employment, and tourism receipts. Findings reveal a statistically significant 4.8?% annualized uplift in GVA and a 7.1?% surge in tertiary sector jobs within 10?km of HSR stations. However, peripheral districts (>30?km) show marginal gains, signaling spatially uneven dividends. Complementary spatial lag models indicate knowledge spillovers attenuate beyond 25?min travel time thresholds. Counterfactual simulations suggest parallel investments in regional feeder rail and digital infrastructure could broaden growth diffusion by up to 40?%.