Reliability Assessment of Electrical Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques

Abstract

Reliability analysis is central to the design, planning, and operation of electrical power systems. This paper introduces a probabilistic reliability assessment framework using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to evaluate both generation and transmission system reliability. Components such as transformers, circuit breakers, and transmission lines are modeled using failure rate data from IEEE databases. The MCS approach is compared with deterministic models to illustrate improved accuracy in risk quantification. A regional power grid in Tamil Nadu is used as a case study, highlighting the impact of seasonal load variations and component aging. The study concludes that MCS provides a robust methodology for making informed investment and maintenance decisions.

Keywords: Power System Reliability, Monte Carlo Simulation, Failure Rate Modeling, Risk Assessment, Grid Planning